<p> Have American conservatives lost their minds over Bosnia? It
was Bismarck who said the Balkans were not worth the bones of
a single Pomeranian grenadier. Bob Dole and other conservative
hawks have long made it clear that they do not consider the
Balkans worth the bones of a single American ground soldier.
Yet they seem quite prepared to sacrifice NATO on the altar
of Bosnia. Destroy NATO for what? Certainly not to save Bosnia.
That they admit is beyond doing. No: for the simple satisfaction
of pretending to save Bosnia; for the warm, smug feeling that
comes from lifting a finger too little and too late in a lost
cause.
</p>
<p> The occasion for Dole's Bosnia posturing was the Serb attack
on the Muslim area of Bihac. In fact, as the French pointed
out accurately, it was a counterattack. The Muslims began this
round with a fierce surprise offensive in late October that
won them 95 sq. mi. of Serb-controlled territory and quiet applause
from the U.S. Now that the gambit has backfired and the Bosnian
government is blaming everyone but itself, Dole is pushing for
more NATO bombing, for lifting the arms embargo and for other
forms of flailing unilateralism.
</p>
<p> These measures, as even Dole admits, hold out little hope of
turning the tide of battle in Bihac or elsewhere in Bosnia.
But they are guaranteed to do great damage to the foremost U.S.
foreign policy asset in the world: NATO. Lifting the arms embargo
and mounting air strikes against the Serbs would endanger the
thousands of British, French and other peacekeeping troops on
the ground in Bosnia. Conveniently, the U.S. has none there,
which invites Dole's cowboy notions. The French and British
are justifiably apoplectic at a U.S. that is unwilling to risk
a single soldier of its own, yet willing to risk the lives of
NATO allies that have already lost dozens.
</p>
<p> It is bad enough that the Clinton Administration unilaterally
stopped enforcing the embargo last month, leaving the NATO allies
holding the bag in the Adriatic. Dole would compound the damage
to the alliance--and to embargoes that we care about, such
as that against Iraq--by actually breaking the embargo over
British and French objections. And embargo busting is more than
just damaging. It is by now ridiculous. The Bosnian government,
for whose sake we would presumably be breaking ranks, itself
gave up the demand 10 weeks ago. In late September the Clinton
Administration, under congressional pressure, was quite prepared
to go to the U.N. to get the arms embargo lifted. But the Bosnian
government, knowing that outside peacekeepers were not about
to stick around under circumstances of all-out war, decided
it did not want to risk a fight to the finish after all and
asked Washington not to proceed for six months. Dole has yet
to catch on.
</p>
<p> Amid the cacophony of conservative commentators and legislators
rattling sabers on behalf of the Muslims, the one voice of sanity
on Bosnia has come from the Clinton Administration. Secretary
of Defense William Perry acknowledged that the Bosnian war is
essentially over and the Serbs have won. The U.S. now appears
prepared to act with Britain and France to push for a cease-fire
and settlement that would necessarily favor the victors. Such
a position represents the dawning of realism. With luck it represents
an end to the empty threats and misleading signals that have
encouraged the Muslims to fight on for almost two years in the
expectation that the U.S. cavalry would eventually ride to the
rescue.
</p>
<p> Cease-fire followed by partition has always been the only possible
Bosnian solution, absent a huge Western land offensive to repel
the Serbs. We were never going to deploy the thousands of troops
necessary to secure any other outcome. And you do not win guerrilla
wars from the air, as our generals learned painfully in Vietnam
and our politicians relearned needlessly at Gorazde and now
Bihac.
</p>
<p> In February 1993 the Clinton Administration disdained the Vance-Owen
partition plan that gave the Serbs 42% of Bosnia. Why? Not fair--the Serbs constituted only 31% of Bosnia's population--and besides, aggression must not be rewarded. So what did we
do? Dithered. Backed and filled, bluffed and caved until we
came up with the Contact Group plan of July 1994. By then the
portion of Bosnia to be awarded the Serbs was up to 49%. Now
a cease-fire in place will give them 70% and more. That is what
our moralism has got us--and got the losing Muslims, on whose
behalf this high-mindedness was deployed.
</p>
<p> Enough. Far better to end the war now than have it grind on
to a future that for the losers can only be ever more painful
and ever more tragic. Dole, however, seems prepared to fight
to the last Bosnian. This is not the first time we have had
a presidential aspirant talking tough and bluff on Bosnia to
win points against an incumbent President following a line of
unsatisfying prudence. Candidate Clinton did exactly that to
President Bush in 1992. Dole's bluster may be poetic justice,
but it is just as empty as was Clinton's two years ago.
